Euro 2012 preview

Only two days now until the opening match of the European Championships and I cannot wait. Unlike the World Cup the Euros always throw every country into the deep end, with only four groups and no 'last 16' stage, there isn't much room for messing about. This means that each group is extremely tight, and it is very difficult for anyone to accurately predict the outcome of any of them. In this post I will provide a short analysis of each group along with a betting tip or two for each.

Group A


At first sight this looks like the ugly group of the bunch, with no team in the group ranked in FIFA's top 10 and no particular stand-out team. As the highest ranked team in the group at 13th in the world, Russia are naturally favourites to win the group and are odds of 1/2 to qualify. Behind them in the ratings are the co-hosts Poland, who presumably have been boosted by the fact that they will be playing at home, along with the rise to prominence of their star man Robert Lewandowski. It is difficult to judge how playing at home in major international competitions affects the results of teams, and the evidence from previous tournaments appears inconclusive. Looking at countries which have hosted the World Cup or the Euros in the last twenty years and were not ranked in the FIFA top 10, we can see that South Africa (2010), both Austria and Switzerland (2008) and Belgium (2000) failed to make it out of their groups, despite hosting or co-hosting the competition. On the other hand, hosts who defied the odds include South Korea and Japan (2002, Semi-final and last 16 respectively), United States (Last 16, 1994) and Sweden (semi-finals, 1992), meaning that there is no strong trend either way. Ultimately it seems that momentum can only take you so far and that there needs to be a certain pedigree within the team in order to make it through, although in this case Poland have been dealt a far more generous group than Ukraine, and will be disappointed not to progress. Further down the odds we have the Czechs and 2004 champions Greece, in an uninspiring conclusion to the group. A lack of goals looks the most likely here, particularly in the case of the Greeks who lack a key front man and only look able to score goals from set pieces.

My Prediction: 1st Russia, 2nd Poland, 3rd Czech Republic 4th Greece

Tips for Group A:

• Greece to score 3 goals or less 4/6 (1.66) StanJames
• Greece to score the least goals in the tournament 8/1 (9.00) PaddyPower
• Both to qualify Russia/Poland 11/5 (3.15) Betfair

Group B

A group dripping with talent with every team ranked in FIFA's top 10, but seemingly likely to provide no real shocks. In Germany we have a team who were arguably the team of the tournament in 2010 and have not really lost any of their major players in a youthful set up. With the youngest average squad age at this tournament, the injury gods have been kind to them and their biggest headache is choosing which striker to start with. Head coach Joachim Low must decide between old head Miroslav Klose, who has a prolific record for the German national team but a more understated club record, or Mario Gomez who has 80 goals for Bayern Munich in his last two seasons and is building an impressive international record himself. Gomez is currently favourite to be top goalscorer at 10/1, but whoever Low selects his team looks certain to reward him with goals. Ordinarily the Germans would be hot favourites for their group, but having been drawn in the same group as the Netherlands the market is caught between the two, slightly favouring the Germans. The Dutch have a similar 'problem' in attack, as it looks unlikely that they will opt for both Huntelaar and Van Persie, with their system more suited to the 4-2-3-1 formation. Despite their powerful attack however, they look a touch bare at the back meaning that goals goals goals looks like a good option to back whenever the Oranje are in action. Below them we have Cristiano Ronaldo, otherwise known as Portugal. Having relied upon big names such as Figo and Deco in past years to carry the mantle for more pedestrian players, Ronaldo has now taken over this role for his country as he attempts to single-handedly drag them through the group stage. It may be a touch unfair to overlook Portugal as a one man team however, with a strong midfield of Meireles, Nani, Moutinho and Cristiano himself, but next to the caliber exhibited by Germany and Holland, Portugal set look to struggle. Although little can normally be taken from the qualification process, it is certainly telling in this case that Portugal only progressed as the 2nd team in their group, behind the fourth member of Group B, Denmark. Denmark are the longest odds at 110/1 to win the trophy, yet it would be harsh to say that they are the worst team in the competition. Much like Portugal, their hopes appeared to be pinned upon the performances of one key individual, 20 year old Christian Eriksen. If Eriksen is on song he and Denmark could be one of the surprise packages of Group B and, although it looks unlikely that they will qualify from the group, they certainly have the potential to topple Portugal, as shown by the qualification process.

My Prediction: 1st Germany, 2nd Netherlands, 3rd Denmark, 4th Portugal

Tips for Group B:

• Portugal to finish bottom 14/5 (3.8) Betfair
• Germany/Netherlands to qualify EVENS (2.04) Betfair
• Ibrahim Afellay to be top Barcelona goalscorer in competition 7/1 (8.00) StanJames

Group C

This is the group which I am most intrigued about, and thoroughly look forward to watching it pan out. Spain are favourites for the competition and strong favourites for the group, but much has been written recently questioning their ability to retain their trophy. Although they boast a delightful squad, they have been struck badly by the injuries of Carlos Puyol and David Villa, two players at the heart of the Spanish setup. Puyol's calmness and experience will be missed at the back, but the absence of Villa poses the greatest of problems for the Spanish, who have no real replacement for the man who has 51 goals in 82 matches for Spain. In Italy we have an enigma, and it is really hard to predict which version of the Italian team is going to show up in Ukraine and Poland. Should they show up in force, they have the potential ability to topple Spain and even top the group, yet should they go the other way, they may see themselves at the bottom of the group. There is not a great deal to suggest that they will take the competition by storm however, and their pre-tournament price of 18/1 seems fair. The Irish and the Croats complete the group and will know that they face an uphill challenge to emerge from the group stage. They have however, the luxury of competing with no real pressure on their shoulders, as expectations are low in both camps. Both teams will look to steal a point from the big two and their structure will certainly be based around defence, particularly in the case of Croatia who have lost their key striker Ivica Olic to injury. Neither team should have any reason to fear the Italians however, particularly not the Irish who have avoided defeat to the Italians on the previous three occasions and will feel like they have the ability to cause an upset. Based on this therefore, the overwhelming trend of the group is defence and a small amount of goals. Spain tend to keep things compact and with no in-form goalscorer proven at international level, they may opt to push forward a midfielder into a more attacking position as Barcelona have with Fabregas. Teams will take courage from Chelsea's ugly yet effective performances against Barcelona, and will set out to stifle Spain in the same manner. With the Irish and Croats not possessing a great deal of attacking flair, this group looks a good bet to be the lowest scoring group. 

My Prediction: 1st Spain, 2nd Italy, 3rd ROI, 4th Croatia

Tips for Group C:

• Lowest scoring group 3/1 (4.00) PaddyPower
• Croatia to finish bottom 12/5 (3.4) Betfair
• Lay Italy vs ROI 5/6 (1.85) Betfair

Group D

At 13/8 France are the slight favourites to win this group, as people seem assured that they have managed to shake off the problems which hindered them at the World Cup. Currently on a 21-match unbeaten run, the most of any international team at present, France are emerging as the tournament dark horses. Boasting a huge array of talent with the likes of Ribery, Benzema, Nasri and M'Vila, they will be hoping to top the group in order to avoid meeting Spain in the quarter-finals. England on the other hand, began as group favourites but have now slipped down the ratings and are rated a low 16/1 shot to lift the trophy. Key injuries to Lampard, Barry and Cahill, as well as the suspension of talisman Wayne Rooney in the opening two games means that the first XI looks a little bare, particularly at the top end of the pitch. Inexperienced Danny Welbeck looks set to get the nod over Andy Carroll, but neither are known for their prolific nature in front of goal, scoring only 9 and 4 league goals respectively this season. Further down, we have Ukraine who appear to be third favourites for this group based on the fact that they are co-hosts, and little else. The ageing Shevchenko will lead their charge for glory, but with questions about his fitness it will be tough for Ukraine to pose a serious threat to England or France. A more credible challenge will come from the fourth team in the group, Sweden, who have emerged as England's bogey side over the last decade. Naturally the biggest threat will come from Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who scored 35 goals this season in all competitions for AC Milan, as well as 6 goals in 11 matches for his national team. Sweden have the potential to cause an upset in the group, and have the advantage of playing England second, before the return of Rooney. 

My Prediction: 1st France, 2nd England, 3rd Sweden, 4th Ukraine

Tips for Group D:

• Benzema to be Real Madrid top goalscorer 6/4 (2.5) StanJames
• Back-to-lay option France to win outright 10/1 (11.0) Betfair
• France 1st/England 2nd 7/2 (4.5) Betfair
• France to reach semi final 9/5 (2.8) Betfair

I hope you all enjoy the spectacle, hopefully it will be a classic.

City may have bought the title, but who hasn't?

Around ten seconds after Sergio Aguero wriggled free of the QPR defence to unleash the title-winning strike, a cold mist of unfamiliar disappointment fell over the United contingent at the Stadium of Light. Yet it did not take long for the pain and anguish to turn to anger, and the familiar old claim that City have 'bought success' began to take hold again. Certainly it is undeniable that the mass investment from Sheikh Mansour has brought glitz and glamour to the club in ways that they could not have dreamed of, certainly not under the previous regime of the suspect Thaskin Shinawatra, but whilst Mansour's spending has eclipsed every other club over the last four years, it is not the case that City have been the only ones spending. Such is the football world these days that vast amounts of cash are required to hit the dizzy heights of success, as nearly all of the previous winners have supported. Chelsea, Blackburn Rovers, Arsenal and Manchester United, have all been equally guilty of 'buying the title' in years prior, and the unfortunate yet logical reality is that he who spends the most is rewarded with success in the end.

Since Mansour's completed takeover of Manchester City on September 1st 2008, the club has gone on to spend unprecedented levels of money in what has become known as the 'Sheikh's billion pound project'. Despite only raising £365 million via their own operations between 2008 and 2011, the club spent over £930 million in transfers and wages. This is not taking into account the money spent in the 2011/12 season, as the figures have not yet been published, but with the purchase of Stefan Savic (£6 million est.), Gael Clichy (£7 million), Samir Nasri (£25 million) and £38 million Sergio Aguero, plus the wages throughout the year, it is safe to say that City's total expenditure has now breached the billion pound mark. Whilst this may be pocket change to the man who has only seen his project play once at the Etihad Stadium, it has inflated the football transfer market to boundless new heights, causing many to question their morals and respect for the integrity of the game.

The critics of City's antics have come from far and wide over the last few seasons, yet the loudest of them all are those who have each previously been the cock of the walk at some point over the past twenty seasons. Criticism aimed towards the Premier League flavour of the year is not a new phenomenon by any means, whether it is City's billions, Chelsea's hundreds of millions or Blackburn's tens of millions, each has experienced similar levels of vilification upon achieving success. Whilst these three examples rose to prominence with inflated cash injections over a short period of time, other clubs, particularly Manchester United, have been culprits of spending large sums over a more elongated time span. Needless to say, an endless reel of all United's purchases from the past twenty years is surplus to requirements, but their dominance is best highlighted by the fact that they paid four of the six highest transfer fees in Premier League history before 2011. Even Uefa's love-child Arsenal have been guilty at times of frivolous spending, as for every Fabregas throughout their history there has been a Chamakh, Anelka a Jeffers, and so on. Furthermore, contrary to condemning mass spending, it is no secret that the fans have been begging Arsene Wenger to spend some serious cash so that the club may once again compete at the top, such is the nature of the modern game.

Another criticism of the newly-crowned Premier League Champions is that their vast sums of money have restricted opportunities for youth development within the club. Micah Richards aside, the biggest names to emerge from City's academy of late have been Joey Barton and Ched Evans, a point which needs little further explanation. Yet it can be argued that foundations are needed before the club can have an opportunity to explore its ranks and, having lived in the shadow of their Devilish neighbours for almost eternity, it would have been extremely difficult for City to have attracted the most talented Mancunians before now. This is best demonstrated in the case of the young Ryan Giggs, who was snatched from their youth team by Sir Alex Ferguson back in 1987, as the lure of a 'big club' seemed too tempting to miss. Having won their first major victory in the recent era over their main rivals however, on top of spending over £60 million regenerating the area surrounding their empire, City will be hopeful that the next time a Ryan Giggs comes along, they will have the means to keep hold of him.

United fans can console themselves with the fact that Manchester City won the title based on the size of their bank alone if they wish, but they must ask themselves whether it is truly anger at their rivals, or anger at the fact that their owners seem incapable of releasing the funds necessary to buy the calibre of players they expect to see at Old Trafford. And, much in the way that the likes of Everton and Arsenal have been crying out for a trillionaire buyer, the accusation of jealousy bears truth with every club in England, as the majority know that, deep down, they would swap bank accounts with City in an instant given the chance.

De Gea No Longer a Flop

After the first month of his Manchester United playing career, David De Gea was given a typical British media welcome: abuse. The unwitting Spaniard was greeted with constant criticism, terrace abuse and tabloid hopes that he would turn out to be another Taibi. He was initially thrown into the limelight, from no error of his own, as he transferred for a hefty £18million price tag in order to replace the infallible Edwin Van Der Sar, and faced a huge task in guarding the United net to the same standard as his predecessor. Admittedly, he did not help himself in his opening two competitive matches, as he made two glaring errors in the Community Shield against Manchester City, as well as conceding a soft goal away to West Brom in his league debut. Criticism of both his age and his lack of English ensued and it was clear that De Gea was going to have to improve somewhat if he was to keep the Number 1 jersey at Old Trafford. And he did.

As United began the season in blistering fashion at the other end of the pitch, the woes of young De Gea were soon forgotten. The performances of attacking players such as Rooney, Young and Nani, along with the exciting young Englishmen in the squad distracted the media who soon became bored with a keeper who was no longer making headline bloopers. But as the goals dried up and a slaughtering at the hands of the Noisy Neighbours knocked the wind out of their sails somewhat, people began to question the talent, or lack of, in the United side. The one position in recent weeks which has not been questioned, however, appears to be the big man in the net.

It remains the case that De Gea is yet to [directly] cost United any points in the league (or trophies). His errors in the Community Shield were reversed by an impressive second half performance by the United attack, and his mistake versus West Brom was cancelled out by a late Ashley Young strike. Since then, he has racked up 5 clean sheets in 15 appearances in all competitions, second only to Patrice Evra (United's top appearance maker in the last 2 seasons), and it certainly cannot be argued that he has only accrued these due to the lack of competition. Danish international Anders Lindegaard has been chomping at the bit all season and it is fair to say that he has taken full advantage of his four appearances this season, keeping clean sheets in three of them. In addition to this, young England U21 goalkeeper Ben Amos has had three appearances so far this season and has also not done anything to harm his reputation.

So whilst United continue a poor run of form which has seen them uncharacteristically concede an average one goal per game in the league, as well as conceding 6 goals in 5 games in Europe, not even the harshest critics are pointing the blame at the Spaniard, following a string of impressive performances and saves which showcase exactly what Sir Alex saw in him. Solid performances against the likes of Chelsea, Norwich City and Everton, as well as a crucial penalty save against Arsenal when United led only 1-0 (which of course ended up 8-2 to United), can only have boosted his confidence and, being so young, he still has plenty of time to learn more. The plaudits are yet to stream in, though maybe a longer period of sustained form is required before he has redeemed himself in the media's eyes. Although on the other hand, being kept out of the spotlight is probably exactly where he is happy to be right now.

The Demise of Paul Scholes?

Following Paul Scholes' recent dismissal in United's FA cup semi-final defeat to local rivals Manchester City, reports have been circulating that this is finally the end of Scholes' illustrious career. After all but ending United's treble hopes on Saturday with a reckless challenge on City's Zabaleta, which resulted in his tenth career red card, he must now make the decision whether to call time on one of the Premier League's most celebrated careers.

Since his debut for Manchester United in 1994, Scholes has risen to legendary status within the British game, winning 9 Premier League trophies and 2 European Cups and playing a crucial role in each season he has been fit to play in. At the beginning of the season it was widely appreciated that this could be his last year at Manchester United, with his 36th birthday imminent and the likes of Anderson, Gibson, Fletcher and Cleverley waiting in the wings. His form in the early half of the season, however, particularly that which earned him the August Player of the Month Award, coupled with the superb performances of fellow veteran Ryan Giggs, served evidence that the two players still have some years left in them at the top. With 59 appearances between the two so far this season, it is certainly evident that the two have played more than a bit-part role in United's quest for further silverware.

The statistics would also appear to favour the Salford-born magician; with him having played in 20 of United's 32 Premier League games so far, including key title matches against Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City which would appear to imply that Sir Alex Ferguson still relies upon the 'wiser' head of Scholes in the bigger games. Delivering one goal and four league assists (only one less than Steven Gerrard, and one more than team-mate Dimitar Berbatov) in the league, this evidence alone would appear to imply that Scholes' playing days are far from over.

It is the case, however, that whilst Scholes' range of passing has been something to behold over the past 17 years, displaying an air of calmness and control when in possession of the ball - envied by any playmaker, his Achilles heel has undoubtedly been his decision-making when not in possession; most notably his tackling. His disciplinary record is undeniably as poor as his passing is good; He has received more yellow cards in the Champions League (32) than any other player, including the booking in the 1999 semi-final which caused him to miss the final; He is the third most yellow-carded player in Premier League history, (behind Kevin Davies - 92, and Lee Bowyer - 99), with 89 to his name, which includes the 10 domestic yellow cards he has received in this campaign, for which he has already served a two-match ban.

Although there is a case that he has always been a fiery character, serving a ban for the 1999 Champions League Final at only 25 years old the obvious example, it is evident that the less he is able to influence games positively as he ages, the more his negative elements have crept into his game. After only receiving one red card in the first 10 years of his career, he has since seen 8 red cards in his last 7 seasons. This does, incidentally, coincide with the crucial departure of Roy Keane in 2005, a player who Ferguson has found extremely hard to replace. The loss of Keane, combined with the tiring legs of Scholes, has led to him occupying an increasingly deeper position in the team, with him often being deployed as the holding midfielder - a role which suits his passing repertoire, yet not his defensive abilities.

Furthermore, despite appearing in 27 games this season, 7 of those appearances have been from the bench, and although the season is not yet over, this is some way down on his average of 40 appearances a season since 1994. His influence when playing would also appear to have diminished considerably, with United winning 75% of the PL games he has not featured in, compared to only 55% of the matches he has played in. Although his legs are often saved for the bigger and more difficult tests, it is certainly a statistic which represents a fall from grace from one of Ferguson's most trusted employees.

With his contract expiring this summer, we are yet to see whether he will follow in the footsteps of Giggs, who signed a one-year extension in February. Always a humble player, however, it is realistic to suggest that, despite being younger than Giggs, Scholes' performances have not matched the welshman's in recent months, and that it may be time to draw an end to a fantastic career. It would be a shame to see the player, who Zinedine Zidane once named as his 'toughest opponent', bow out from the big stage without a big send off, and it would be perhaps fitting for his last game to be in the Champions League final at Wembley. After being exposed and outrun by the likes of De Jong and Yaya Toure on Saturday, however, it remains to be seen how much faith Ferguson will place in him, should they reach the final.

Are City for real this time?

There is a common phrase often banded about in life - 'Money can't buy happiness'. Happiness, maybe not (see Mario Balotelli as an example), but as for success in the EPL, it would appear that money goes a long way towards securing the Holy Grail that is the Premier League trophy. Large cash injections into clubs have often seen fruitful rewards, from Blackburn's crown in 1995 to Chelsea's dominance in the latter half of the last decade, so is it the case that Sheikh Mansour's wallet could help to secure the EPL in 2011? As the teams begin the new year, Manchester City sit second in the league on goal difference, 6 points ahead of current champions Chelsea in 5th place. Do city have the legs and the experience, however, to continue their form to secure their first top division title in 43 years?

It is widely commented upon that Manchester United have a much wider range of experience in their squad, much more strength in depth and a manager who has been-there, done-it, and has so many T-shirts he could dress the entire City squad. It is certainly the case that 21 of United's squad have won at least one winners medal from Europe's top Premier Leagues, and it is undeniable that their dominance over the last 2 decades owes a large part to their ability to call upon experienced heads when the going got tough. To Sir Alex Ferguson, City's rise will only seem like another futile attempt to knock him and his club off their perch, from which they have watched many clubs attempt and fail to successfully break up the United dominance for good.

City, however, backed by billions, have other ideas. Having watched the red half of Manchester rule supreme for as long as they can remember, the sky blues will be fueled by decades of pain and jealously. Even the last time City secured domestic glory in 1968, United went one better and won the European Cup. But times are changing now, and they truly believe that this time they have what it takes to go all the way. In contrast to the common misconception, when it comes to experience of winning titles, City have ample. 11 of their squad have previously won European league titles - 12 if the the transfer of Edin Džeko is confirmed, and within that 12 they have 5 who have won English titles, including Patrick Vieira, who captained arguably the best title-winning side the EPL has ever seen. On top of this they have a World Cup winner, as well as a World Cup runner-up, and a three-time winning Serie A winning manager, with three Serie A titles as a player also to his name.

As well as clear experience, they also have an undeniable amount of flair and talent on the pitch. In Carlos Tevez they have a proven goalscorer and hardworking talisman for their squad, and, provided they can keep him happy, it will be a huge boost every time he is in the starting 11. Alongside him they have the surly Italian Mario Balotelli, who has the clear potential to produce magic if Mancini can coax it out of him. Whilst at the back they certainly seem to have eradicated their defensive problems, having conceded only 16 goals in 21 games - currently the best record in the league.

As for the other challengers, Chelsea, Arsenal and Tottenham, they seem, at present, quite a distance from title-winning material. Current champions and original favourites Chelsea have found themselves floundering in recent weeks and their decision to not replace the likes of Belletti, Joe Cole, Ivanovic and Ballack in the summer has left their squad looking extremely bare. Arsenal are suffering from the same old problems, they are in desperate need of a quality goalkeeper and defensive partnership, whilst Marouanne Chamakh has not provided the goal threat that they had hoped he would. Tottenham, on the other hand, have been one of this years top performers in certain games, unfortunately, however, most of these games have been in Europe, a competition which they appear to have prioritised this season.

At present, a London-Manchester battle is shaping up, with the Manchester clubs currently leading the pack. With just under half the season remaining and traditionally United's best form about to be kicked into gear, it will be fascinating to watch whether the not-so-inexperienced Manchester City have the legs to push their closest rivals all the way for the title.