Group A
At first sight this looks like the ugly group of the bunch, with no team in the group ranked in FIFA's top 10 and no particular stand-out team. As the highest ranked team in the group at 13th in the world, Russia are naturally favourites to win the group and are odds of 1/2 to qualify. Behind them in the ratings are the co-hosts Poland, who presumably have been boosted by the fact that they will be playing at home, along with the rise to prominence of their star man Robert Lewandowski. It is difficult to judge how playing at home in major international competitions affects the results of teams, and the evidence from previous tournaments appears inconclusive. Looking at countries which have hosted the World Cup or the Euros in the last twenty years and were not ranked in the FIFA top 10, we can see that South Africa (2010), both Austria and Switzerland (2008) and Belgium (2000) failed to make it out of their groups, despite hosting or co-hosting the competition. On the other hand, hosts who defied the odds include South Korea and Japan (2002, Semi-final and last 16 respectively), United States (Last 16, 1994) and Sweden (semi-finals, 1992), meaning that there is no strong trend either way. Ultimately it seems that momentum can only take you so far and that there needs to be a certain pedigree within the team in order to make it through, although in this case Poland have been dealt a far more generous group than Ukraine, and will be disappointed not to progress. Further down the odds we have the Czechs and 2004 champions Greece, in an uninspiring conclusion to the group. A lack of goals looks the most likely here, particularly in the case of the Greeks who lack a key front man and only look able to score goals from set pieces.
My Prediction: 1st Russia, 2nd Poland, 3rd Czech Republic 4th Greece
Tips for Group A:
- Greece to score 3 goals or less 4/6 (1.66) StanJames
- Greece to score the least goals in the tournament 8/1 (9.00) PaddyPower
- Both to qualify Russia/Poland 11/5 (3.15) Betfair
Group B
A group dripping with talent with every team ranked in FIFA's top 10, but seemingly likely to provide no real shocks. In Germany we have a team who were arguably the team of the tournament in 2010 and have not really lost any of their major players in a youthful set up. With the youngest average squad age at this tournament, the injury gods have been kind to them and their biggest headache is choosing which striker to start with. Head coach Joachim Low must decide between old head Miroslav Klose, who has a prolific record for the German national team but a more understated club record, or Mario Gomez who has 80 goals for Bayern Munich in his last two seasons and is building an impressive international record himself. Gomez is currently favourite to be top goalscorer at 10/1, but whoever Low selects his team looks certain to reward him with goals. Ordinarily the Germans would be hot favourites for their group, but having been drawn in the same group as the Netherlands the market is caught between the two, slightly favouring the Germans. The Dutch have a similar 'problem' in attack, as it looks unlikely that they will opt for both Huntelaar and Van Persie, with their system more suited to the 4-2-3-1 formation. Despite their powerful attack however, they look a touch bare at the back meaning that goals goals goals looks like a good option to back whenever the Oranje are in action. Below them we have Cristiano Ronaldo, otherwise known as Portugal. Having relied upon big names such as Figo and Deco in past years to carry the mantle for more pedestrian players, Ronaldo has now taken over this role for his country as he attempts to single-handedly drag them through the group stage. It may be a touch unfair to overlook Portugal as a one man team however, with a strong midfield of Meireles, Nani, Moutinho and Cristiano himself, but next to the caliber exhibited by Germany and Holland, Portugal set look to struggle. Although little can normally be taken from the qualification process, it is certainly telling in this case that Portugal only progressed as the 2nd team in their group, behind the fourth member of Group B, Denmark. Denmark are the longest odds at 110/1 to win the trophy, yet it would be harsh to say that they are the worst team in the competition. Much like Portugal, their hopes appeared to be pinned upon the performances of one key individual, 20 year old Christian Eriksen. If Eriksen is on song he and Denmark could be one of the surprise packages of Group B and, although it looks unlikely that they will qualify from the group, they certainly have the potential to topple Portugal, as shown by the qualification process.
My Prediction: 1st Germany, 2nd Netherlands, 3rd Denmark, 4th Portugal
Tips for Group B:
My Prediction: 1st Germany, 2nd Netherlands, 3rd Denmark, 4th Portugal
Tips for Group B:
- Portugal to finish bottom 14/5 (3.8) Betfair
- Germany/Netherlands to qualify EVENS (2.04) Betfair
- Ibrahim Afellay to be top Barcelona goalscorer in competition 7/1 (8.00) StanJames
Group C
This is the group which I am most intrigued about, and thoroughly look forward to watching it pan out. Spain are favourites for the competition and strong favourites for the group, but much has been written recently questioning their ability to retain their trophy. Although they boast a delightful squad, they have been struck badly by the injuries of Carlos Puyol and David Villa, two players at the heart of the Spanish setup. Puyol's calmness and experience will be missed at the back, but the absence of Villa poses the greatest of problems for the Spanish, who have no real replacement for the man who has 51 goals in 82 matches for Spain. In Italy we have an enigma, and it is really hard to predict which version of the Italian team is going to show up in Ukraine and Poland. Should they show up in force, they have the potential ability to topple Spain and even top the group, yet should they go the other way, they may see themselves at the bottom of the group. There is not a great deal to suggest that they will take the competition by storm however, and their pre-tournament price of 18/1 seems fair. The Irish and the Croats complete the group and will know that they face an uphill challenge to emerge from the group stage. They have however, the luxury of competing with no real pressure on their shoulders, as expectations are low in both camps. Both teams will look to steal a point from the big two and their structure will certainly be based around defence, particularly in the case of Croatia who have lost their key striker Ivica Olic to injury. Neither team should have any reason to fear the Italians however, particularly not the Irish who have avoided defeat to the Italians on the previous three occasions and will feel like they have the ability to cause an upset. Based on this therefore, the overwhelming trend of the group is defence and a small amount of goals. Spain tend to keep things compact and with no in-form goalscorer proven at international level, they may opt to push forward a midfielder into a more attacking position as Barcelona have with Fabregas. Teams will take courage from Chelsea's ugly yet effective performances against Barcelona, and will set out to stifle Spain in the same manner. With the Irish and Croats not possessing a great deal of attacking flair, this group looks a good bet to be the lowest scoring group.
My Prediction: 1st Spain, 2nd Italy, 3rd ROI, 4th Croatia
Tips for Group C:
- Lowest scoring group 3/1 (4.00) PaddyPower
- Croatia to finish bottom 12/5 (3.4) Betfair
- Lay Italy vs ROI 5/6 (1.85) Betfair
Group D
At 13/8 France are the slight favourites to win this group, as people seem assured that they have managed to shake off the problems which hindered them at the World Cup. Currently on a 21-match unbeaten run, the most of any international team at present, France are emerging as the tournament dark horses. Boasting a huge array of talent with the likes of Ribery, Benzema, Nasri and M'Vila, they will be hoping to top the group in order to avoid meeting Spain in the quarter-finals. England on the other hand, began as group favourites but have now slipped down the ratings and are rated a low 16/1 shot to lift the trophy. Key injuries to Lampard, Barry and Cahill, as well as the suspension of talisman Wayne Rooney in the opening two games means that the first XI looks a little bare, particularly at the top end of the pitch. Inexperienced Danny Welbeck looks set to get the nod over Andy Carroll, but neither are known for their prolific nature in front of goal, scoring only 9 and 4 league goals respectively this season. Further down, we have Ukraine who appear to be third favourites for this group based on the fact that they are co-hosts, and little else. The ageing Shevchenko will lead their charge for glory, but with questions about his fitness it will be tough for Ukraine to pose a serious threat to England or France. A more credible challenge will come from the fourth team in the group, Sweden, who have emerged as England's bogey side over the last decade. Naturally the biggest threat will come from Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who scored 35 goals this season in all competitions for AC Milan, as well as 6 goals in 11 matches for his national team. Sweden have the potential to cause an upset in the group, and have the advantage of playing England second, before the return of Rooney.
My Prediction: 1st France, 2nd England, 3rd Sweden, 4th Ukraine
Tips for Group D:
- Benzema to be Real Madrid top goalscorer 6/4 (2.5) StanJames
- Back-to-lay option France to win outright 10/1 (11.0) Betfair
- France 1st/England 2nd 7/2 (4.5) Betfair
- France to reach semi final 9/5 (2.8) Betfair
I hope you all enjoy the spectacle, hopefully it will be a classic.
