Euro 2012 preview

Only two days now until the opening match of the European Championships and I cannot wait. Unlike the World Cup the Euros always throw every country into the deep end, with only four groups and no 'last 16' stage, there isn't much room for messing about. This means that each group is extremely tight, and it is very difficult for anyone to accurately predict the outcome of any of them. In this post I will provide a short analysis of each group along with a betting tip or two for each.

Group A


At first sight this looks like the ugly group of the bunch, with no team in the group ranked in FIFA's top 10 and no particular stand-out team. As the highest ranked team in the group at 13th in the world, Russia are naturally favourites to win the group and are odds of 1/2 to qualify. Behind them in the ratings are the co-hosts Poland, who presumably have been boosted by the fact that they will be playing at home, along with the rise to prominence of their star man Robert Lewandowski. It is difficult to judge how playing at home in major international competitions affects the results of teams, and the evidence from previous tournaments appears inconclusive. Looking at countries which have hosted the World Cup or the Euros in the last twenty years and were not ranked in the FIFA top 10, we can see that South Africa (2010), both Austria and Switzerland (2008) and Belgium (2000) failed to make it out of their groups, despite hosting or co-hosting the competition. On the other hand, hosts who defied the odds include South Korea and Japan (2002, Semi-final and last 16 respectively), United States (Last 16, 1994) and Sweden (semi-finals, 1992), meaning that there is no strong trend either way. Ultimately it seems that momentum can only take you so far and that there needs to be a certain pedigree within the team in order to make it through, although in this case Poland have been dealt a far more generous group than Ukraine, and will be disappointed not to progress. Further down the odds we have the Czechs and 2004 champions Greece, in an uninspiring conclusion to the group. A lack of goals looks the most likely here, particularly in the case of the Greeks who lack a key front man and only look able to score goals from set pieces.

My Prediction: 1st Russia, 2nd Poland, 3rd Czech Republic 4th Greece

Tips for Group A:

• Greece to score 3 goals or less 4/6 (1.66) StanJames
• Greece to score the least goals in the tournament 8/1 (9.00) PaddyPower
• Both to qualify Russia/Poland 11/5 (3.15) Betfair

Group B

A group dripping with talent with every team ranked in FIFA's top 10, but seemingly likely to provide no real shocks. In Germany we have a team who were arguably the team of the tournament in 2010 and have not really lost any of their major players in a youthful set up. With the youngest average squad age at this tournament, the injury gods have been kind to them and their biggest headache is choosing which striker to start with. Head coach Joachim Low must decide between old head Miroslav Klose, who has a prolific record for the German national team but a more understated club record, or Mario Gomez who has 80 goals for Bayern Munich in his last two seasons and is building an impressive international record himself. Gomez is currently favourite to be top goalscorer at 10/1, but whoever Low selects his team looks certain to reward him with goals. Ordinarily the Germans would be hot favourites for their group, but having been drawn in the same group as the Netherlands the market is caught between the two, slightly favouring the Germans. The Dutch have a similar 'problem' in attack, as it looks unlikely that they will opt for both Huntelaar and Van Persie, with their system more suited to the 4-2-3-1 formation. Despite their powerful attack however, they look a touch bare at the back meaning that goals goals goals looks like a good option to back whenever the Oranje are in action. Below them we have Cristiano Ronaldo, otherwise known as Portugal. Having relied upon big names such as Figo and Deco in past years to carry the mantle for more pedestrian players, Ronaldo has now taken over this role for his country as he attempts to single-handedly drag them through the group stage. It may be a touch unfair to overlook Portugal as a one man team however, with a strong midfield of Meireles, Nani, Moutinho and Cristiano himself, but next to the caliber exhibited by Germany and Holland, Portugal set look to struggle. Although little can normally be taken from the qualification process, it is certainly telling in this case that Portugal only progressed as the 2nd team in their group, behind the fourth member of Group B, Denmark. Denmark are the longest odds at 110/1 to win the trophy, yet it would be harsh to say that they are the worst team in the competition. Much like Portugal, their hopes appeared to be pinned upon the performances of one key individual, 20 year old Christian Eriksen. If Eriksen is on song he and Denmark could be one of the surprise packages of Group B and, although it looks unlikely that they will qualify from the group, they certainly have the potential to topple Portugal, as shown by the qualification process.

My Prediction: 1st Germany, 2nd Netherlands, 3rd Denmark, 4th Portugal

Tips for Group B:

• Portugal to finish bottom 14/5 (3.8) Betfair
• Germany/Netherlands to qualify EVENS (2.04) Betfair
• Ibrahim Afellay to be top Barcelona goalscorer in competition 7/1 (8.00) StanJames

Group C

This is the group which I am most intrigued about, and thoroughly look forward to watching it pan out. Spain are favourites for the competition and strong favourites for the group, but much has been written recently questioning their ability to retain their trophy. Although they boast a delightful squad, they have been struck badly by the injuries of Carlos Puyol and David Villa, two players at the heart of the Spanish setup. Puyol's calmness and experience will be missed at the back, but the absence of Villa poses the greatest of problems for the Spanish, who have no real replacement for the man who has 51 goals in 82 matches for Spain. In Italy we have an enigma, and it is really hard to predict which version of the Italian team is going to show up in Ukraine and Poland. Should they show up in force, they have the potential ability to topple Spain and even top the group, yet should they go the other way, they may see themselves at the bottom of the group. There is not a great deal to suggest that they will take the competition by storm however, and their pre-tournament price of 18/1 seems fair. The Irish and the Croats complete the group and will know that they face an uphill challenge to emerge from the group stage. They have however, the luxury of competing with no real pressure on their shoulders, as expectations are low in both camps. Both teams will look to steal a point from the big two and their structure will certainly be based around defence, particularly in the case of Croatia who have lost their key striker Ivica Olic to injury. Neither team should have any reason to fear the Italians however, particularly not the Irish who have avoided defeat to the Italians on the previous three occasions and will feel like they have the ability to cause an upset. Based on this therefore, the overwhelming trend of the group is defence and a small amount of goals. Spain tend to keep things compact and with no in-form goalscorer proven at international level, they may opt to push forward a midfielder into a more attacking position as Barcelona have with Fabregas. Teams will take courage from Chelsea's ugly yet effective performances against Barcelona, and will set out to stifle Spain in the same manner. With the Irish and Croats not possessing a great deal of attacking flair, this group looks a good bet to be the lowest scoring group. 

My Prediction: 1st Spain, 2nd Italy, 3rd ROI, 4th Croatia

Tips for Group C:

• Lowest scoring group 3/1 (4.00) PaddyPower
• Croatia to finish bottom 12/5 (3.4) Betfair
• Lay Italy vs ROI 5/6 (1.85) Betfair

Group D

At 13/8 France are the slight favourites to win this group, as people seem assured that they have managed to shake off the problems which hindered them at the World Cup. Currently on a 21-match unbeaten run, the most of any international team at present, France are emerging as the tournament dark horses. Boasting a huge array of talent with the likes of Ribery, Benzema, Nasri and M'Vila, they will be hoping to top the group in order to avoid meeting Spain in the quarter-finals. England on the other hand, began as group favourites but have now slipped down the ratings and are rated a low 16/1 shot to lift the trophy. Key injuries to Lampard, Barry and Cahill, as well as the suspension of talisman Wayne Rooney in the opening two games means that the first XI looks a little bare, particularly at the top end of the pitch. Inexperienced Danny Welbeck looks set to get the nod over Andy Carroll, but neither are known for their prolific nature in front of goal, scoring only 9 and 4 league goals respectively this season. Further down, we have Ukraine who appear to be third favourites for this group based on the fact that they are co-hosts, and little else. The ageing Shevchenko will lead their charge for glory, but with questions about his fitness it will be tough for Ukraine to pose a serious threat to England or France. A more credible challenge will come from the fourth team in the group, Sweden, who have emerged as England's bogey side over the last decade. Naturally the biggest threat will come from Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who scored 35 goals this season in all competitions for AC Milan, as well as 6 goals in 11 matches for his national team. Sweden have the potential to cause an upset in the group, and have the advantage of playing England second, before the return of Rooney. 

My Prediction: 1st France, 2nd England, 3rd Sweden, 4th Ukraine

Tips for Group D:

• Benzema to be Real Madrid top goalscorer 6/4 (2.5) StanJames
• Back-to-lay option France to win outright 10/1 (11.0) Betfair
• France 1st/England 2nd 7/2 (4.5) Betfair
• France to reach semi final 9/5 (2.8) Betfair

I hope you all enjoy the spectacle, hopefully it will be a classic.

City may have bought the title, but who hasn't?

Around ten seconds after Sergio Aguero wriggled free of the QPR defence to unleash the title-winning strike, a cold mist of unfamiliar disappointment fell over the United contingent at the Stadium of Light. Yet it did not take long for the pain and anguish to turn to anger, and the familiar old claim that City have 'bought success' began to take hold again. Certainly it is undeniable that the mass investment from Sheikh Mansour has brought glitz and glamour to the club in ways that they could not have dreamed of, certainly not under the previous regime of the suspect Thaskin Shinawatra, but whilst Mansour's spending has eclipsed every other club over the last four years, it is not the case that City have been the only ones spending. Such is the football world these days that vast amounts of cash are required to hit the dizzy heights of success, as nearly all of the previous winners have supported. Chelsea, Blackburn Rovers, Arsenal and Manchester United, have all been equally guilty of 'buying the title' in years prior, and the unfortunate yet logical reality is that he who spends the most is rewarded with success in the end.

Since Mansour's completed takeover of Manchester City on September 1st 2008, the club has gone on to spend unprecedented levels of money in what has become known as the 'Sheikh's billion pound project'. Despite only raising £365 million via their own operations between 2008 and 2011, the club spent over £930 million in transfers and wages. This is not taking into account the money spent in the 2011/12 season, as the figures have not yet been published, but with the purchase of Stefan Savic (£6 million est.), Gael Clichy (£7 million), Samir Nasri (£25 million) and £38 million Sergio Aguero, plus the wages throughout the year, it is safe to say that City's total expenditure has now breached the billion pound mark. Whilst this may be pocket change to the man who has only seen his project play once at the Etihad Stadium, it has inflated the football transfer market to boundless new heights, causing many to question their morals and respect for the integrity of the game.

The critics of City's antics have come from far and wide over the last few seasons, yet the loudest of them all are those who have each previously been the cock of the walk at some point over the past twenty seasons. Criticism aimed towards the Premier League flavour of the year is not a new phenomenon by any means, whether it is City's billions, Chelsea's hundreds of millions or Blackburn's tens of millions, each has experienced similar levels of vilification upon achieving success. Whilst these three examples rose to prominence with inflated cash injections over a short period of time, other clubs, particularly Manchester United, have been culprits of spending large sums over a more elongated time span. Needless to say, an endless reel of all United's purchases from the past twenty years is surplus to requirements, but their dominance is best highlighted by the fact that they paid four of the six highest transfer fees in Premier League history before 2011. Even Uefa's love-child Arsenal have been guilty at times of frivolous spending, as for every Fabregas throughout their history there has been a Chamakh, Anelka a Jeffers, and so on. Furthermore, contrary to condemning mass spending, it is no secret that the fans have been begging Arsene Wenger to spend some serious cash so that the club may once again compete at the top, such is the nature of the modern game.

Another criticism of the newly-crowned Premier League Champions is that their vast sums of money have restricted opportunities for youth development within the club. Micah Richards aside, the biggest names to emerge from City's academy of late have been Joey Barton and Ched Evans, a point which needs little further explanation. Yet it can be argued that foundations are needed before the club can have an opportunity to explore its ranks and, having lived in the shadow of their Devilish neighbours for almost eternity, it would have been extremely difficult for City to have attracted the most talented Mancunians before now. This is best demonstrated in the case of the young Ryan Giggs, who was snatched from their youth team by Sir Alex Ferguson back in 1987, as the lure of a 'big club' seemed too tempting to miss. Having won their first major victory in the recent era over their main rivals however, on top of spending over £60 million regenerating the area surrounding their empire, City will be hopeful that the next time a Ryan Giggs comes along, they will have the means to keep hold of him.

United fans can console themselves with the fact that Manchester City won the title based on the size of their bank alone if they wish, but they must ask themselves whether it is truly anger at their rivals, or anger at the fact that their owners seem incapable of releasing the funds necessary to buy the calibre of players they expect to see at Old Trafford. And, much in the way that the likes of Everton and Arsenal have been crying out for a trillionaire buyer, the accusation of jealousy bears truth with every club in England, as the majority know that, deep down, they would swap bank accounts with City in an instant given the chance.

Winter break anyone?

After an eventful few weeks the cry for a temporary suspension of the English football leagues during the brisk winter months seem to have been temporarily silenced. That is until the inevitable poor performance by England in the European championships this summer.

December in particular can be a huge strain on the teams in England's, and debatably the world's, top league, highlighted by the topsy-turvy results produced in recent weeks. The consistency shown in the early stages by the star-studded Manchester City has wavered greatly and their new reputation as the 'neutral's team' is beginning to evaporate. Never to be outdone however, their nearest rivals have largely stolen the headlines as they capitalised on City's poor form to take first place, before spectacularly collapsing and suffering back-to-back losses against Blackburn (incidentally the biggest shock in Premier League history according to the pre-match odds of 28/1 for a Blackburn win) and Newcastle. The main beneficiary from the crowded Christmas calendar has been Tottenham, who are now level on points in second place and have, for the moment at least, opened the season up to a three-horse race.

Elsewhere in the division, the dip in dominance from the 'bigger' teams has allowed others to pick up points crucial to their campaign. A string of impressive performances from the likes of Norwich and Sunderland has temporarily released them from the threat of relegation.

Aside from the factor of entertainment, (and this last month has been very entertaining; with late goals, dubious decisions, firing and hirings, return of legends, etc), surely one of the arguments in favour of a winter break is the decline in weather? In recent years however, it has not been until January onwards that the country begins to freeze over, and in the last month we have seen a winter temperature almost as warm as Ryan Giggs' bed. There were no postponements in the top two English leagues in December and everything ran as smoothly as Blue Ivy's bottom.

This then leaves the monotonous wearing-out-players argument, and whilst we can argue that they are paid enough so they should play when they are told to, they are athletes at the top of their game and can only perform as much as their body will allow. My issue with the 'solution' of a winter vacation however, is that it isn't a solution, merely a lazy attempt to copy the likes of Spain and Germany who have better international teams than us. Yes England were poor at the last World cup, but we weren't the only ones: Brazil were poor, Messi was silent, France were awful and Ronaldo was below par. The point is here, maybe we aren't just 'tired', maybe, horror of horrors, we are actually a poor team who do not work well together. We didn't even qualify for Euro 08 and the qualification stages were held during the course of our domestic season, so were they tired then? Of course the 'wally with the brolly' took the rap for that one, and the England players slid away back to their clubs. I would like to see what the F.A. would do if we introduced a winter break and still we floundered on the international stage.

And surely there is an obvious flaw to the proposed 'solution' in that the games delayed in the winter will still need to be played in the summer? This would mean a longer season and less preparation time for the summer tournaments, no? Oh but Germany and Spain do it! That must be the only reason they do well. They are screwed now, their secret is out.

If the footballing bodies in this country are really concerned about our players 'burning out' then the only option is to reduce the size of the league, and therefore the number of games. This would, of course, result in lower TV revenues for everyone and is probably the reason that we should not expect to see any developments in the near future. Equally so, I cannot see Sky witnessing the abolition of the winter fixtures without a fight, purely because of the entertainment and viewing figures they attract. So we will just have to lump it. Not that I personally am complaining, Boxing Day wouldn't be Boxing Day without a full helping of Jeff and the boys.