Group A
At first sight this looks like the ugly group of the bunch, with no team in the group ranked in FIFA's top 10 and no particular stand-out team. As the highest ranked team in the group at 13th in the world, Russia are naturally favourites to win the group and are odds of 1/2 to qualify. Behind them in the ratings are the co-hosts Poland, who presumably have been boosted by the fact that they will be playing at home, along with the rise to prominence of their star man Robert Lewandowski. It is difficult to judge how playing at home in major international competitions affects the results of teams, and the evidence from previous tournaments appears inconclusive. Looking at countries which have hosted the World Cup or the Euros in the last twenty years and were not ranked in the FIFA top 10, we can see that South Africa (2010), both Austria and Switzerland (2008) and Belgium (2000) failed to make it out of their groups, despite hosting or co-hosting the competition. On the other hand, hosts who defied the odds include South Korea and Japan (2002, Semi-final and last 16 respectively), United States (Last 16, 1994) and Sweden (semi-finals, 1992), meaning that there is no strong trend either way. Ultimately it seems that momentum can only take you so far and that there needs to be a certain pedigree within the team in order to make it through, although in this case Poland have been dealt a far more generous group than Ukraine, and will be disappointed not to progress. Further down the odds we have the Czechs and 2004 champions Greece, in an uninspiring conclusion to the group. A lack of goals looks the most likely here, particularly in the case of the Greeks who lack a key front man and only look able to score goals from set pieces.
My Prediction: 1st Russia, 2nd Poland, 3rd Czech Republic 4th Greece
Tips for Group A:
- Greece to score 3 goals or less 4/6 (1.66) StanJames
- Greece to score the least goals in the tournament 8/1 (9.00) PaddyPower
- Both to qualify Russia/Poland 11/5 (3.15) Betfair
My Prediction: 1st Germany, 2nd Netherlands, 3rd Denmark, 4th Portugal
Tips for Group B:
- Portugal to finish bottom 14/5 (3.8) Betfair
- Germany/Netherlands to qualify EVENS (2.04) Betfair
- Ibrahim Afellay to be top Barcelona goalscorer in competition 7/1 (8.00) StanJames
- Lowest scoring group 3/1 (4.00) PaddyPower
- Croatia to finish bottom 12/5 (3.4) Betfair
- Lay Italy vs ROI 5/6 (1.85) Betfair
- Benzema to be Real Madrid top goalscorer 6/4 (2.5) StanJames
- Back-to-lay option France to win outright 10/1 (11.0) Betfair
- France 1st/England 2nd 7/2 (4.5) Betfair
- France to reach semi final 9/5 (2.8) Betfair